Thursday, January 17, 2008

The Primary System Explained part two: The Republicans

I rambled on at length explaining the primary system in my post about the Democrats, so on the Republican side I'll just confine myself to explaining the candidates and aspects of the upcoming primaries particular to the Republican Party, who have some different caucus dates and different approaches to punishing states for early primaries. I'm also ignoring Duncan Hunter because I don't have the slightest clue who he is, as well as professional sacrificial lamb Alan Keyes.

The Candidates:

Mitt Romney: former Governor of Massacheusetts Signature Moves: lightning bolt, teleport Fatality: Electrocution

Edgy for being a Masshole, a Mormon, and a Republican, in addition to serving one term as governor of Massacheusetts, Romney was CEO of the Salt Lake Olympics, and is apparently also from Michigan. I think his plan is to win the nomination by virtue of being from everywhere.


Mike Huckabee: former Governor of Arkansas
Signature Move: flying kick Fatality: Dragon

A strong showing in Iowa set up this showdown between Romney and Huckabee as the "change" candidates for the Republicans. He's also the devoutly Christian candidate, which hasn't played as well in later primaries. I honestly haven't been paying that much attention to Huckabee, since the whole constant reference to Jesus thing hasn't worked out too well in American politics. If he can't keep something going, he may fade back into the margins as the Christian conservative candidate.

John McCain: Senator from Arizona
Signature Move: ice ball
Fatality: spine rip

Because of the debilitating injuries he suffered in a POW camp during the Vietnam War, John McCain can't raise his arms over his head to comb his own hair. He is the oldest candidate, with a reputation for integrity and a record of pursuing campaign finance reform.

Fred Thompson: former Senator from Tennessee Signature Moves: leaping stomp, chest pound, spinning slaps, tremor pound

Fred Thompson is a former actor who's very good at acting presidential, best known for his recurring role as the New York County DA on Law & Order. He entered the race late and so far has made no real splash.

Ron Paul: Texas Congressman
Signature Moves: invisibility, spits venom
Fatality: Acid Puke

Ron Paul is a strongly libertarian candidate who is generally ignored by the national media. He has raised a lot of money on the internet, voicing the libertarian perspective. Unfortunately in terms of mainstream politics, his views are quite nutty, for instance he wants to bring home all 600,000 American troops overseas. He's not going to win the Republican nomination, but he's interesting.

Rudy Giuliani: Mayor of New York City on 9/11
Signature Moves: Bloody Spear
Fatality: Toasty!


In his tenure as mayor, Rudy Giuliani presided over the revitalization of the city, but has based his candidacy on the perception that he expertly managed the crisis on 9/11, to the point where Fred Thompson accused Giuliani of working 9/11 into every sentence. Giuliani has claimed disinterest in the early primaries, and is counting on a big win in Florida to start his campaign.

The Delegates, and the Primary Results:

The Republican nomination process is simpler than the Democratic process, with no super-delegates, and 2,380 delegates assigned by state, with 1,191 needed to win. The primaries and caucuses have been as follows, without all caucus results being binding. (Yes, American elections are a mess to figure out, why do you think we don't vote?)

Iowa: Mike Huckabee had critical early success here, but Mitt Romney also came out of Iowa with a fair number of delegates.

Wyoming: The party stripped Wyoming of half its delegates as punishment for holding an early caucus, and not all of Wyoming's delegates have been assigned, but Romney won here.

New Hampshire: This established John McCain as serious again, as far as the national media was concerned. Again, Romney came in second and picked up delegates.

Michigan: Stripped of half their delegates, Michigan was still important, as Mitt Romney built on his lead by winning and scooping most of the state's delegates.

The important upcoming events are the Nevada Caucuses and the South Carolina Primary this weekend, and then after that the Florida Primary where Giuliani will get into the race for real.

So far, these are the estimated delegate totals, with 1,191 needed to win:

Mitt Romney - 54
Mike Huckabee - 22
John McCain - 15
Fred Thompson - 6
Ron Paul - 2
Rudy Giuliani - 1
Duncan Hunter - 1

So basically only Romney has been in every primary and had any momentum, Huckabee and McCain need to prove they aren't going to flame out after the single primary they each put all their money into, and Giuliani and Thompson need their big debut events (FL and SC) to get started. We're only 5% of the way through this, though.

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