US Prospects

Here are the standings:

Italy 4pts 3-1
Czech Republic 3pts 3-2
Ghana 3pts 2-2
USA 1pt 1-3

Here's the official list of tie-breakers if two teams are tied on points:

a) goal differential
b) goals scored
c) head-to head result
d) coin toss

So as you can see, keeping the margin close and scoring even when you lose (instead of giving up on your opening game and losing 3-0) are fairly critical, this isn't best two out of three women's tennis. The US cannot win the group, but can finish second and advance to the playoffs. In order to do so, they must win their final game against Ghana. One of the following conditions must also be satisfied:

1. Italy defeats Czech Republic (US wins on points)

2. Italy draws with Czech Republic, and:

a) US beats Ghana by 4 goals (US wins on goal differential)

b) US beats Ghana by 3 goals and scores 3 more goals than Czech Republic does against Italy (US wins on goals scored)
(ITA 0-0 CZE, USA 3-0 GHA; or ITA 2-2 CZE, USA 5-2 GHA, etc.)

3. Czech Republic defeats Italy, and:

a) the combined margins of victory total 6 or more, e.g. CZE 3-0
ITA, USA 3-0 GHA (US wins on goal differential)

b) the combined margin of victory equals 5, and the US scores 3 more goals than Italy (US wins on goals scored) (CZE 3-0 ITA, USA 3-1 GHA, etc.)

c) the combined margin of victory equals 5, and the US scores 2 more goals than Italy, and the US wins the coin toss (CZE 3-0 ITA, USA 2-0, heads; CZE 3-2 ITA, USA 4-0 GHA, tails, etc.)

This should make it clear why I said there's no shame in losing to the Czechs, but the margin of victory was going to eliminate us. US advancement now requires effectively requires Italy to beat the Czechs outright when out of all 32 teams the Italians are the team most likely to play for a draw in this situation. Even a loss gets them to the second round, and a draw lets them avoid Brazil. The problem is the Ghanaians and Czechs are on the verge of elimination, the Czechs have something to prove, and the only thing we have going for us is the Italians have to be mighty pissed off about their last game and not happy about the prospect of meeting Brazil early.

Basically unless Italy wins (highly possible) or the US blows out Ghana 5-0 (unlikely) or Italy has a total meltdown against the Czechs and loses 5-0 (never happening) we're going home.