Group G - SUI, KOR, FRA

I forgot to summarize what happens on day three for Group G (not that anybody would have noticed that omission). The short version is: win on Friday or you're probably fucked.

Group G Standings:
Switzerland 4pts 2-0
South Korea 4 pts 3-2
France 2pts 1-1
Togo 0pts 1-4

Togo was eliminated by their loss to Switzerland, but Switzerland, South Korea, or France can all easily finish first, second, or third. On Friday, France plays Togo, and Switzerland plays South Korea.

The simple outcomes:

If France loses to Togo, they are eliminated. South Korea would need a win to win the group, Switzerland needs a win or a draw.

If France beats Togo, the winner of the Switzerland-Korea game wins the group, and France takes second.

The complicated one:

Switzerland draws with Korea, and France beats Togo, so everybody is tied on 5 points. Starting with the lowest scoring way (0-0, 1-0) it works out like this:

1. Switzerland - goal differential +2, min goals scored 2
2. Korea - goal differential +1, min goals scored 3
3. France - min goal differential +1, min goals scored 2

To move up, France can a) win big, b) score a lot of goals, or c) a combination of both. Here are the possibilities, and who finishes first and second:

1) France wins by 3 - FRA. SUI

2) France wins by 2

2a) France wins by 2 and Switzerland scores as many goals as France (in a high scoring draw) - SUI, FRA

2b) France wins by two and outscores Switzerland by 2 on the day - FRA, SUI

2c) France wins by 2, scoring one more goal than Switzerland - coin toss between FRA and SUI for 1st

3) France wins by 1

3a) France wins by one, outscores Korea on the day by 2 (2-1 and 0-0, 4-3 and 2-2, etc.) - SUI, FRA

3b) France wins by one, and outscores Korea on the day by less than two goals (1-0 and 0-0, or 3-2 and 2-2) - SUI, KOR

So basically anybody who doesn't win is looking at elimination by France, and a higher scoring draw is a potential 3-way tie-breaker versus France for both Korea and Switzerland. A win may do it for France, but every goal they put in the back of the net is a potential 3-way tiebreaker.

(BTW, there can't be a perfect three way tie since Korea and Switzerland can't have the same goal differential, so no need to go to the "throw out the results against Togo" tie-breaker subsection, thank the lord. Head to head is irrelevant because only teams that drew against each other can tie.)