Vikings Playoff Update

Unbelievably after their atrocious start to the season, the Vikings 7-6 and currently holding on to the last wild card spot, and while the division title is out of reach, either wild card spot is possible. Ideally the Vikings will get the top wild card spot, beat the champs of the South or West, and record a stunning upset of the Packers in the division round. Clearly they will then ride that high to a karmic reversal of the '75 Whiskey Bottle Game and beat the Cowboys to make the Superbowl (where they will pass the Bills and Broncos with a record fifth Superbowl loss... the Patriots are on too much of a roll).

Here is our enemies list, the teams fighting with the Vikings for the last two wild card spots:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (likely to win their division)
New York Giants (our big rival for the top spot)
Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals
Detroit Lions
New Orleans Saints
Carolina Panthers
Chicago Bears
Philadelphia Eagles

To secure a spot, the Vikings have to either win out or get some help, so here's who to root for in every NFL game relevant to the Vikings this week:

Falcons v Saints
Tonight the Saints are still a potential threat, while the Falcons are not, so I think Vikings fans should root for the Falcons to knock the Saints to 5-8, and simplify the play-off picture. On the other hand, keeping the Saints motivated would put pressure on a couple of their remaining opponents: the 6-7 Cardinals and the 5-8 Eagles who are way back but have a tie-breaker over the Vikings.

Next Sunday there are seven games of interest to the Vikings.

The easy calls:
Lions v Chargers
Falcons v Buccaneers
Seahawks v Panthers
The Chargers aren't in our conference, and the Lions can still hurt the Vikings, so I hope the lightning bolts beat the hell out of them. Since the Buccaneers and Seahawks are likely to win the NFC South and West respectively and be out of the wild card race anyways, the other two games really only decide if the Vikings want to face the Bucs or Seahawks in the first round (currently Seattle has an effective 1.5 game edge with the tiebreaker). I'd like both to stay hungry and keep handing losses to other NFC teams, so I'm rooting for the Bucs to keep the pressure up while Seattle wears out their starters and knocks down the Panthers trying to say ahead of Tampa.

The leaders:
Eagles v Cowboys
Packers v Rams
In terms of making the play-offs, the Cowboys can help finish off the Eagles, the only team with tie-breakers against the Vikings, so that's a good thing. The Packers only matter if the Vikings are looking for a future third game re-match, in which case it might be better if the Packers finish on top and get the second wild card in a potential second round game. The Eagles are more important, so I'd root for both the Packers and Cowboys to win: knock out the Eagles, but keep our options open. I hate rooting for the Packers to win, but I want them going down to the wire with the Cowboys and not resting their starters.

The tricky games:
Cardinals v Saints
Both are potential threats and depending on the outcome of the MNF game, these two will likely be tied at 6-7 next week, one game behind the Vikings. The Saints have a tougher schedule, facing potential play-off teams, and won't waltz into the play-offs, but if they catch the Vikings they'll have a tie-breaker on conference record. If they Falcons should win tonight, then both the Saints and Cardinals could be 6-8 after next week and take a lot of pressure off the Vikings, but a Cardinals win would probably help the Vikings more than a Saints win.

Giants v Redskins
If only there was a way for them both to lose... The Giants hold the top wild card spot with a two game lead, but are vulnerable to the Vikings thanks to that Eli Manning meltdown that gave us the tie-breaker. The Redskins are a threat to eliminate the Vikings, but if they win and take the Giants down a peg, the Vikings still have a decisive home game against the Redskins. Given the effective 1.5-game swing for the winner of that game, if a few other games go the Vikings way I'd say one more win for the Redskins now is less important than keeping the Giants in reach (I hate the Giants too much to be objective).

Monday Night:
Vikings v Bears
If they Vikings win, they will eliminate the Bears from the play-offs, and set an 8-win minimum for a wild card spot, potentially eliminating the Panthers, Saints, and Eagles, and putting the fear into either the Giants or Redskins. Every Vikings-Bears game is crazy, so anything could happen.

So here's who I'm rooting for:

Falcons over Saints
Buccaneers over Falcons
Cardinals over Saints
Chargers over Lions
Cowboys over Eagles
Packers over Rams
Seahawks over Panthers
Redskins over Giants (tentatively)
Vikings over Bears