Last night as I was watching the surprisingly listless Wolves get pummeled by the LA Clippers (I know, really?) it was kind of sad to watch the current Wolves be outplayed by a team stocked with former Wolves. I loved watching Sebastian Telfair coming off the bench, undersized but scary quick, but I did remember last night why I loved him, and why we traded him: after faking out a Wolves guard last night so badly he fell down (wow) Telfair couldn't come up with a way to take advantage of that besides an entry pass into the high post (er, wow?). But it got me thinking about this summer's Wolves-Clippers trade, where they traded Sebastian Telfair, Craig Smith, and Mark Madsen to the Clippers for Quentin Richardson, who the Wolves promptly to Miami for Mark Blount.
Trying to see how that trade worked out in the end, I started searching for who the Wolves had moved Blount for or when they'd cut him, and I was shocked to realize he was actually still on the roster. I hadn't noticed him down there through a third of the season, honestly. So they traded Telfair, a quick change of pace point guard; Smith, an undersized yet tough power forward who used quicker feet and crafty moves to create match-up problems; and Madsen, who had really suffered career ending injuries. Blount was theoretically at one time a center with a nice jump shot who could draw out opposing big men and open up room for a dominant low-post player, but really they just traded those guys away for a fresh start and cap room at best.
Are they getting anything back in trades?
That got me wondering what all the big Wolves trades of the last couple of years have netted them. I figured I'd start with the draft day decision last year to trade OJ Mayo, and combine any trade involving pieces that got later re-traded into one gigantic deal. Since this is about figuring out if they made the team better, I'm sort of ignoring anybody who got cut without making a splash.
So in the hypothetical mega-deal, the Wolves traded away: OJ Mayo, Randy Foye, Antoine Walker, Marko Jaric, Greg Buckner, and Bobby Brown, plus two 2nd round draft picks. That seems like quite a haul, except that Walker would have left as a free agent, and Buckner and Brown are cheaper role-players, so it's really Mayo (potential superstar), quirky combo guards Foye and Jaric, and bodies + contracts. Foye is playing limited minutes off the bench this year for the Bullets and Jaric was told by the Grizzlies to shop himself around the league and stay away from their practices (ouch). So really we didn't miss much in that deal... I'd honestly take Buckner back first (defense and three-point shooting off the bench would be nice). So it's OJ Mayo, two 2nd round draft picks, Foye and Jaric?
In return, the Wolves essentially got Kevin Love, Ricky Rubio, Brian Cardinal, Oleksiy Pecherov (wait, we traded OJ Mayo for four white guys?), Damien Wilkins, and a 2nd round pick. Mayo could be a superstar, and he was widely projected as a higher pick and better player than K-Love, and while time will tell, there certainly should be compensation for trading down. Just because it's easier to evaluate, I'd like to split the deal in two into the known and unknown quantities, and call that 2nd round pick Nathan Jawai since they traded one to Dallas for him. Part of what the Wolves got back was cap room a year earlier as Cardinal's inexplicably giant contract winds down, and I'd like to just put that together with role players Wilkins, Jawai and Pecherov, and balance that against Foye and Jaric. A couple of crappy centers and a mediocre shooting guard who can score (a bit) plus cap room for Foye and Jaric, the versatile yet inconsistent point guards who couldn't actually play point guard? I could honestly see calling that a wash.
So if you figure the known quantities cancel out, or are at least within the margin of error of a lottery pick's future potential all that leaves is the traded draft picks to sort out. That's OJ Mayo plus two future 2nd rounders for Kevin Love plus the draft rights to Spanish superstar in the making Ricky Rubio. A talented guard and future training camp fodder for a really talented guard plus a nearly as talented big man. That's a great deal, except for one thing: Ricky Rubio will probably never be a Timberwolf (under contract, making too many euros, afraid of snow, wants to play in NYC, etc.) So really it's OJ Mayo for Kevin Love plus down the road we get to trade Rubio to the Knicks for a little something. Honestly that still sounds okay to me. I kind of like that the Wolves are accumulating talent in Europe like hiding assets in a Swiss bank while tanking for a lottery pick.
So are they actually getting better?
Through trades the Wolves did stock up a bit for the future by getting future cap relief, by adding trade-bait in Rubio and Pekovic (sought-after Europeans who have no interest in playing for Minnesota) and by trading Ty Lawson for a pick in next year's draft and by drafting Henk Norel they have a 2nd round pick stashed away in Europe. The draft added Kevin Love last year, and Jonny Flynn who is fun to watch, and Wayne Ellington. Corey Brewer is back and he, Ellington, and Flynn all look capable of taking big steps forward. But that's kind of hard to get excited about when you're watching a 4-22 team (tanking for a lottery pick is theoretically good for the future, if you have a TV market big enough to attract ping-pong balls).
In the present, the Wolves did add one decent free agent in Ramon Sessions and he and Flynn apparently seemed good enough to merit ditching their attempt at adding a veteran point guard (C3PO or Chucky Atkins), and hopefully their third PG Jason Hart is learning something down there on the end of the bench. Another FA was Aleksandr Pavlovic, who was supposed to bring in much needed three point range, but really I feel like he and Wilkins are warm bodies at shooting guard, and again I just hope Ellington or Brewer will take a step up. Adding Ryan Hollins as a legitimate center is good, but really there's no big free agent addition to be boning about.
So they aren't really any better this year, but if they go into next year with the #1 overall pick and two mid-round picks from Utah and Charlotte (via Denver) and use that to add talent to a core of Flynn, Love, and Big Al, have Pekovic and Rubio on the shelf, and still have cap room (!) I think they should go after a superstar who's been elevating crappy players for too long. Seriously, I say go after Lebron James... I'm sure Nike would nix that deal, but just imagine David Stern's head exploding.
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