I could figure out about pledged delegates, I've been trying to figure
out what Super Tuesday is looking like. Barack and Hillary are each
leading in several states, but the states where Hillary is leading (AR,
CA, MA, NJ, NY, OK, TEN) have more delegates (943) than the states where
Barack is leading (AB, AK, GA, ID, IL, KS, MN, ND, 440 delegates) but
most delegates are proportionally allocated, and the undecided states
(AZ, CO, CT, DE, MO, NM, UT) add another 305. It really helps my
cocktail napkin calculation to have New York and California going
Clinton's way, but if Hillary loses in California she could be finished.
Of course, Obama has momentum and splitting the primaries and getting
800 delegates would probably keep him alive long enough to win the
nomination.
On the Republican side, because Mike Huckabee's plucky third place takes
a lot of votes away from Mitt Romney (don't ask me why) and according to
polling, this lets McCain beat him a lot of winner take all states.
Romney's strength is in states that have proportional allocation of
delegates, so it's quite possible that the Republicans will have a
nominee... in February. Can't we at least wait for the Ides of March or
something?
In any case polls are getting ridiculously inaccurate with response
rates around 20%, so who knows what's going to happen, but this should
be fun. I've never been to a caucus before, and two days before Super
Tuesday, I still haven't decided which party's caucus to go to, so I've
left it in the hands of fate: if the weather's bad, I'm going to the
Democratic Caucus because it's being held next door, and if the sun is
shining, I'll walk the mile to the Republican Caucus over on Nicollet
Island.
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