Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Annoying 2008 Election Update: One got all frizzled up...

...and then there was one. Kind of. Just about everybody has officially conceded that John McCain is going to be the Republican nominee and the most conservative candidate with even a slim hope of victory. Here's how it all happened, in a cascading series of events:

1. John McCain won a lot of winner-take-all states and did okay in the proportional representation states, building up a huge lead in delegates, so everybody else became a long shot.

2. Mitt Romney suspended his campaign but never released his nearly 300 delegates, and hasn't ruled out the possibility he would re-enter the race, like if McCain were to be abducted by ninjas before the convention. I know that sounds unlikely, but a guy who can spend $42.5m of his own money to come in a distant second probably has the money to run a secret dojo of secret assassins somewhere underneath the streets of Boston. (Every time part of the Big Dig has to be closed down for "flooding" it's just because somebody got too close to Romney's Bond villain lair, and his secret army of Teenage Mormon Ninja Turtles.)

3. Ron Paul decided to focus on his congressional race when Romney dropping out and McCain steamrolling everyone else meant there was no possibility of a brokered convention where Paul's delegates could swing the nomination.

4. McCain started ignoring Huckabee and campaigning against the Democrats, and Huckabee played nice because he still wants to be vice president.

5. The New York Times printed a story about McCain having an affair with a lobbyist that involved a lot of innuendo and not a lot of facts. Instead of doing a politician's denial and leaving himself room to weasel about the meaning of the word "the" like someone else we know, McCain unequivocally denied it, basically doing the Sam Jackson "Say 'what' again! I dare you!" scene from Pulp Fiction daring the NYT to contradict him and staking his political career and his legacy on it being a bullshit story. For conservatives, being attacked by the NYT is like an endorsement, so McCain picked up yardage as the conservative talk radio hosts (who were previously claiming their audience would desert the party if he were nominated) all circled the wagons around McCain.

6. With Romney and Paul hanging onto 302 delegates and McCain having another 1064, Mike Huckabee can win at most 1014 delegates, but he needs 1191 to win. Huckabee says he needs a miracle, and appeared on SNL in a sketch where he wouldn't leave the stage when his bit was over and it was time for him to go, sheepishly saying "Sorry, I usually pick up on these things."

So McCain can't be beaten, but nobody will drop out. This does seem mysterious, but there are some possibilities:

1. Conservative Republicans might stage a backlash to McCain he couldn't recover from. The NYT seems to have forestalled this possibility by giving him their endorsement.

2. McCain might die before the convention. The guy is in his 70's, and if he has a stroke in March that leaves half his face paralyzed, he's not going to be president.

3. McCain could suffer some other political embarrassment that makes him drop out, like if he adopts a wide stance at the Minneapolis airport and restlessly taps his foot waiting for his prune smoothie to kick in. (The Republican Convention is in Minnesota, so that's going to be one busy bathroom.)

4. McCain could get it over with and pick Huckabee or Romney as his running mate, so he can act presidential, shore up his base and woo independents while the Democrats are still squabbling. Either one would bring enough delegates to make the nomination official, and McCain needs somebody ready to take over the job since there is a serious risk he'll die in office.

5. The horse may learn to sing hymns, and Huckabee could run the table, or Romney who is still on the ballot could stage some resurgence, and they could convince caucus delegates to switch their votes, although given the giant lead McCain has in delegates they'd have an easier time trying to dub Nicholas Cage into Cantonese--

--Oh, holy shit! As I was writing that this asian woman came up behind me and scared the living daylights out of me. Fucking Republican ninjas.

Anyways, if something crazy happens, either Romney or Huckabee could be back in it as a candidate or a power broker if McCain should stumble. And McCain's vice president is likely to run in 2012 as the heir apparent, so forcing his hand on picking you isn't such a bad idea if you have enough delegates to clinch his nomination, but McCain is likely to be the nominee by next Tuesday and render all of this moot.

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Cool things I saw this week

Miss Evers' Boys

Last week I went with the Guthrie to Hennepin County Medical Center for a dramatic reading of Miss Evers' Boys, a play about the Tuskegee Experiments written by former Guthrie actor David Feldshuh, who earned a PhD in Theater and an MD from the University of Minnesota. For anyone not familiar with the Tuskegee Experiments, black men from a rural area in Alabama who were infected with syphilis were enrolled in a study and told they were getting treatment for their disease, while the unchecked disease ate away at their brains for an astonishing forty year period.

The Guthrie has run a program for about nine years in which they read this play at the UofM medical school, and the day before they go to a different medical facility to perform for working doctors at places ranging from HCMC to the Mayo Clinic, and its just, well, really cool. The effect that play had on the doctors was remarkable, and it sparked a broad discussion between the actors and the doctors and nurses about issues of race in medical care, the legacy of Tuskegee, and generally how doctors interact with patients, and the generational differences so visible in patients and doctors. This play is apparently the highlight of training on medical ethics given to doctors and nurses at the UofM, and it was interesting to hear the discussion it sparked amongst nursing students talk about how different their relationship with doctors is today. All I did was a bit of unskilled labor and scraping the Guthrie van through the HCMC parking lot, but man was that a cool thing.

Third

Wendy Wasserstein's final play is fantastic, and I now know why everybody says Sally Wingert can do no wrong. I caught the dress rehearsal on Friday and the whole production was so intriguingly different from what I pictured when I read the script, it was an absolute delight to see what Casey Stangl did with it. The set and music were unique in their own right, a series of covers of songs from the 60's and 70's, including Cake's immortal cover of "I Will Survive" and a box onto which a series of projections of still images and video created the numerous scenes of Third, with furniture sliding out from the wings, Sally Wingert seductively draped across it, as necessary. Just a superb production, sharp and bright, and Third packs into two hours a story that can be explored from so many different angles it's one of the most stimulating plays I've seen in ages... much like The Home Place, the last play I saw on the McGuire stage. And it's nice to see Sally in a speaking role, since the last time I saw her was as the chain-smoking, scene stealing Parisian maid in Private Lives stomping across the stage and snarling in French at anyone who tried speak to her.

Peer Gynt

This is one of the hardest plays in the world to stage, and Henrik Ibsen himself suggested ditching act four altogether. The Guthrie's Minnesota-styled production stages the play as the fevered vision of a man having a heart-attack, full of dazzling dances and quirky humor (Help me, Omar Sharif!) and I figured when I walked in to the Pirandellian framing device of a birthday party with a band playing the Beer Barrel Polka, it was going to be a strange trip and it certainly was, complete with subterranean trolls singing the Vikings fight song. Mark Rylance is one of the world's most prestigious stage actors (when they rebuilt the Globe, as in Shakespeare's theater, Rylance was the first creative director) so I figure there aren't going to be too many opportunities in life to see him don a thick Minnesota accent in the all-singing, all-dancing, sometimes-rhyming, troll and belly-dancing infested bizarre voyage of Peer Gynt, and I'm glad I was there to see it. (And not just for the belly-dancing). It's hard to know what to think of Peer Gynt, it's so overwhelming, but Mark Rylance is a god.

Gerald Green's dunk

Gerald Green's signature dunk in the all-star weekend dunk competition was really cool, as he had teammate Rashad McCants place a birthday cupcake behind the rim, and then Green got enough air on his dunk to blow out the candle before dunking. He should have won and defended his title, because that was way cooler than Dwight Howard's Superman dunk. Gerald Green, #15 in your programs, #1 in your hearts... and about #12 off the bench for the Wolves right now.

Annoying 2008 Election Update: The W's

With a primary in Wisconsin and a caucus in Hawaii yesterday, Washington couldn't miss out on such a W heavy day and had a primary to complement their caucus (which was like a week ago), but Wyoming and West Virginia ain't got time for this nonsense. The results were as expected: Obama and McCain won everything handily.

Obama won the Hawaii caucus with 76% of the vote which is hardly surprising given his advantage with caucus voters and history with Hawaii (like Mitt Romney, part of Barack Obama's appeal is he's from everywhere), but that's still a hefty margin of victory, albeit in a small state. He also won the meaningless Washington primary by a slim margin (all Democratic party delegates were assigned at the caucus) which is still significant because it robs the Clinton campaign of a big PR victory if Obama supporters on caucus night all stayed home for the primary figuring there was nothing at stake and they'd already voted once.

The big prize is Wisconsin, which along with Pennsylvania, Ohio and Texas was supposed to form the Clinton firewall: the states where more conservative, practical voters with economic issues on their minds would turn out for Hillary Clinton and arrest the momentum of the Obama campaign. Instead Obama came away with a big win with a couple of weeks to crow about it before the next round of primaries. Practically it's not that meaningful, since Obama only picked up 19 more delegates than Clinton yesterday, and Ohio and Texas are the real must-win states for her campaign (and I may be mistaken lumping Wisconsin in with Ohio and Texas as a firewall state).

On the Republican side, McCain won in Washington where half the state's delegates were up for grabs (the other half were assigned at the caucus, or would be if they'd ever finish counting the ballots) and also won in Wisconsin. He is still a significant ways away from securing the nomination, but he is inching closer to the point where Huckabee could release his delegates to McCain and give him the nomination. I have no earthly idea why Mitt Romney is hanging onto his delegates, because he has 286 and McCain only needs 270, and Romney made big speech about how if we don't all support the Republican frontrunner the terrorists win. Huckabee is at least angling for a job in the McCain administration (like vice president). Nothing much will change in the next couple weeks for the Republicans as they have a series of island primaries in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and several other unforgettable islands I couldn't point out on a map (and I still have no idea who won in Guam).

Delegates State Super Total
Obama 1184 162.5* 1346.5
Clinton 1023 240 1263

(*-I have no idea why he has half a superdelegate either)

Monday, February 18, 2008

10 things recently brought to my attention

1. Everybody hates Zug

It's not just me. Nobody can go there for business (or in my case via chicanery) without catching some twinge of the evil spirit that pervades the place, causing an imbalance of the humors that leads to uncontrollable, bilious outbursts whenever the very name of Zug is mentioned. It's the unhappiest place on earth.

2. Freddie Mercury was a freighter captain

And he had a dirty, dirty hold. Seriously I have a good source on this.

3. Democrats are in league with the forces of terror

Thanks to Mitt Romney, we now know that a vote for anyone but the Republican frontrunner (regardless of who that may be) is a vote in favor of the forces of terror that threaten to overwhelm the world. Kind of makes you wonder why he ran in the first place, if all his candidacy was doing was sowing the seeds of discord for القاعدة.

4. Omarosa is batshit crazy

This was actually not much of a surprise, but you've got to love somebody who knows she's on thin ice and certain to be fired if her team loses... and figures the best thing to do is to sabotage her own team. Apparently her thinking was if she could provoke a meltdown through constant personal insults about Piers Morgan's family, she could throw him to the wolves. And on TV no less, just to make sure nobody wants to work with her ever again. She's the only non-celebrity on the Celebrity Apprentice, basically because watching her implode and take people down with her makes for good television, and to be fair, it is an amazing achievement to make Piers Morgan look like an embattled man of principle.

5. Scotland has its own legal system

As part of the act of union, Scotland has maintained its own legal and judicial system for the last three hundred years. I still can't figure out why the English are so desperate to hold onto all their various appendages... to quote Eddie Izzard, “Not the Falkland Islands! We need those for strategic sheep purposes!”

6. Jenna Jameson carries a gangster roll.

No checkbook for Jenna Jameson (although I do shudder to think of where she might keep it) who pulled out this giant wad of bills to pay for a charity carriage ride with her boyfriend. Apparently she's left her husband after several years of exclusively performing with him, and hooked up with an ultimate fighter which is probably why she doesn't worry about getting mugged carrying $10,000 in cash on her person (although she may just have a good hiding place).

7. Mike Huckabee is the key to understanding the intricacies of our universe.

Stephen Colbert claims he created Mike Huckabee, although Conan O'Brien claims his revitalization of Chuck Norris as a public figure made Norris' endorsement of Huckabee meaningful, while Jon Stewart claims to have created both O'Brien and Colbert, and by extension, Norris and Huckabee... and they had a knock-down, drag-out fight between the three of them to settle it that Jon Stewart described as “the dumbest thing ever shown on television”. That's a lot of TV history Mike Huckabee managed to tap into, and a lot of silliness, and it's sadly probably what I'll remember about the 2008 Republican primary season.

8. In Japan, fingering a stranger's butthole isn't just for the bathhouse.

There's an arcade game in Japan called Boonga-Boonga in which a player chooses a character representing some vexing person in their life, and then fingers their ass while they scream. I don't even know where to begin commenting on this one.

9. Crowd shots at the AVN Awards are a lot more fun than the Oscars.

Old directors clapping and grimacing irritably at the camera in their face, or hot young women pulling their dresses open and kissing each others breasts when the camera comes by. You decide.

10. Washington State loves church, Mike Huckabee not so much.

The Washington State Republican Party had a caucus to assign half their delegates, then never bothered to let anybody know how those delegates were assigned, or if they'd ever finished counting ballots. Seriously still no delegate count on CNN a week later, but last Saturday night they were so sure a 2% lead would hold up (with 13% of ballots uncounted) they announced a winner and, according to the state party, had to quit counting ballots so they could go home and be well-rested and alert for church the next morning. Then the evangelical candidate, Huckabee, sued them for a recount, apparently believing they could have slept in and gone to the evening service.

Thursday, February 14, 2008

Annoying 2008 Election Update: The Republicans

For those of you wandering the streets of London looking for a restaurant offering you more than dry crackers (for £26) and want to know what's going on in America, here's what happened to the Republicans since Super Tuesday.

Mitt Romney suspended his campaign, and both he and President Bush tacitly acknowledged John McCain is the inevitable Republican nominee and that Mike Huckabee should drop out and get behind him. Governor Romney came dangerously close to announcing that anyone who didn't get behind the Republican front-runner was in league with the forces of terror, but then he didn't release his delegates. After this, Ron Paul announced that since there was no real possibility of a brokered convention with Romney out, he was scaling back his campaign and focusing more energy on his Texas congressional race, so the whole race is down to McCain with a giant lead over Huckabee.

After this, Mike Huckabee won in Louisiana and Kansas, and then the Washington State Republican Party announced McCain won their caucus and we should all take their word for it even if they didn't count like, every single ballot from like every single precinct, because that would take all night or something (and then Huckabee took them to court). He was still way behind, and this Tuesday was the so-called Potomac Primary with winner take all contests in Virginia, DC, and Maryland, and Huckabee got killed. Hopefully he can build some momentum in this weekend's primary in White Trash Hawaii before next Tuesday's primaries in Wisconsin and Washington... that's right, Washington has a primary like a week after their caucus, talk to them about it. (I only know like two people in Washington who could maybe explain to me why they do this, and I don't have contact info for either one.)

McCain is actually quite close to reaching a point where Romney or Huckabee's delegates would be enough to secure the nomination and end the nomination process, which creates interesting possibilities for the smoke-filled room.

A brief update on the Democrats: Barack Obama won in Virginia, DC, and Maryland and by a significant margin, which means for the first time he has the overall lead (not counting superdelegates he's been in the lead since the Iowa caucus). It's still extremely close and supposedly upcoming states are packed with the poorer, less well educated people who have thus far turned out for Hillary Clinton so things might swing back her way with Ohio and Texas voting in the beginning of March. The last Democratic events until then are a primary in Wisconsin and a caucus in Hawaii, both next Tuesday.

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Ken Branagh... why?

I was watching Kenneth Branagh's adaptation of Othello, until I finally gave up halfway through, because I had started wondering where exactly his reputation came from. I have by no means seen all of his films but there's no shortage of crap in them, from his stunt casting in Much Ado About Nothing and Hamlet, the inexplicable diversions from the plot of Mary Shelley's Frankenstein, to the hysterical chanting style of Hamlet, or that weird white hairdo he had in Hamlet (God I hated that adaptation).

So I looked back at every film of his I've seen, and I realized I've hated almost all of them. I liked Dead Again, and that gray, neurotic version of Twelfth Night was at least interesting, but that was about it. Once he didn't have Emma Thompson to play off, she went on to write award nominated screenplays and generally be charming and he cranked out a couple aggressively bad adaptations of classic literature. I guess I should have been warned, since his mystique did really explode after his 1996 showdown with Baz Luhrmann over who could do the worst adaptation
of Shakespeare (Hamlet vs Romeo+Juliet) and trick the most people into watching it. A fair contest: Even after 10 years to reflect, I still couldn't tell you which is the least watchable.

Monday, February 11, 2008

Annoying 2008 Election Update - Democrats

First, in case you didn't hear, Barack Obama won the Louisiana primary,
the Nebraska caucuses, the Washington State caucuses, the Virgin Islands
primary, and the Maine Caucus this weekend, and won all five contests by
a significant margin. He is close to taking enough of a lead in
regional delegates to neutralizing Senator Clinton's advantage in
superdelegates and formally take the lead, but he's still only halfway
to the nomination. This creates some interesting concerns about the
future strategy of the Clinton campaign, and the nature of the
delegates. There are still ways Senator Clinton can lose the regional
primaries and still be the nominee:

1. Use Florida and Michigan

Both of these states were stripped of their delegates by the national
party for holding early primaries, and they seemingly just realized that
Howard Dean wasn't kidding and they really are out of the whole process.
Both are pursuing reinstatement of their delegates, but most of the
Democrats refused to campaign in these states and weren't even listed on
the ballot in Michigan, so they don't have many delegates. On the other
hand, Senator Clinton campaigned in both states and promised to seat
their delegates if nominated, so she swept up in both primaries. If the
delegates are reinstated, they would mostly go to Senator Clinton.

This many not come to pass... because of the strong labor unions in the
area who don't want to be left out of the convention, Michigan may have
a caucus to assign delegates and Senator Obama would obviously be on the
ballot and campaign for those delegates. Florida is intending to keep
pursuing a legal challenge, but one possibility is that their delegates
will be assigned according to national proportions (likely split evenly
between the two candidates) and this would allow Florida to participate
in the convention but not to affect the nomination.

2. Win the Superdelegates

If the race stays close and she's behind, Senator Clinton can lock up a
lot of superdelegates to get herself the nomination. Some prominent
Democrats have denounced this idea as suicidally stupid, if political
insiders overrided the stated preference of Democrats who came out to
caucus in huge numbers for Senator Obama. Al Gore's campaign manager
Donna Brazile has said that the intended purpose of superdelegates is to
break a deadlock or hasten the nomination of an inevitable frontrunner,
and that she would quit the DNC if superdelegates actually reversed the
outcome of the regional primaries.


3. Get John Edwards' delegates

Since Senator Edwards suspended his campaign rather than dropping out
like Congressman Kucinich or Governor Richardson did, he hasn't released
his delegates and could still deliver them to somebody else in exchange
for say, the vice presidency, or being named attorney general. He
doesn't have that many delegates, but getting their votes would be
equivalent to a big win in a whole other state.

4. Steal Obama's delegates

A lot of these early contests are caucuses, in which voters get together
on the precinct level and choose delegates to district conventions,
where delegates will be chosen for the state convention. In my district
the vote was overwhelmingly for Barack Obama, but there is nothing to
prevent my fellow district convention delegates from choosing state
convention delegates who will support Hillary Clinton instead. In 1984,
Vice President Mondale won the nomination by getting unbound delegates
to switch their vote, and really anything can happen. Again though,
using my state as an example, Minnesota went so overwhelmingly for
Senator Obama that to actually swing the state convention for Senator
Clinton would invite a disastrous backlash, but she could pick up a few
more delegates if they switch sides.

Combine these elements together and that's a lot of delegates, but all
of these things only matter if the race is close and Obama is ahead,
since Clinton has the connections to pull these things off and I really
doubt Obama does. The more blatant this stuff is the less likely she'd
be to get away with it, and the harder it would be to convince
disenfranchised Democrats to show up and vote for her in the general
election. If she falls too far behind, Senator Clinton won't be able to
raise enough money to stay in the race anyways, and this weekend she
already started loaning money to her campaign to keep it afloat. If she
gets pummeled again in the Mid-Atlantic primaries tomorrow, that could
be the beginning of the end, because now that McCain is tightening his
grip on the Republican nomination, the Democrats want their nomination
settled quickly. If Senator Clinton does well tomorrow though, this may
not be over until the very end.

Delegates: (regional)
Clinton 1143 (920)
Obama 1125 (997)
Edwards 26 (26)

Sunday, February 10, 2008

Amstelboy's Switzerland Itinerary

Day One:

8am – 30 minutes of nude yoga

9am – blueberry cheese fondue breakfast special

10am - 12pm – hide behind trees, pop out and shout “GRUZEI!” at startled strangers

12pm – go to Zurich Zoo to select animal to eat for lunch
(note: Dr. Uhler recommends the zebra tartar)

2pm-6pm – complete merger by smashing any remaining ATMs in Zurich

7pm – fondue and racism with Dr. Uhler

9:55pm – flush toilet before deadline

Day Two

8am – 30 minutes of nude yoga

8:30am – breakfast meeting with the Honey Monster
(note: bring Sugar Puffs, buttermilk, cheese grater and 2 kilos of swiss cheese)

10:17am – Train to Geneva

10:47am – disembark in Zug, beat the crap out of train station employees for not putting up a damn sign in the train station that says ZUG on it anywhere.

10:52am – back on train to Geneva

12pm – cheese fondue
(note: keep it light and use Swiss cheese or something else with holes in it)

1pm – 6pm – Torture POWs
(note: buy Alannis Morissette CD)

6:37pm – Train to Zurich

8:38pm – disembark in Zurich

8:43pm – realize it's Zug, beat up train station employees
(note: while in Zug, buy a cake on string and beat up bakery employees)

9:13pm – disembark in Kloten

9:14pm – call mom to make testicle jokes

9:15pm – buy hairspray and deodorant in aerosol cans at airport

9:45pm – arrive in Basel after unnecessary plane ride and spray hairspray everywhere to further destroy ozone layer

10pm – cocaine and fondue party at Martina Hingis' house

10:52pm – call Rufus to ask him why he's up at 4:52am

Day Three

8am – 30 minutes of nude yoga

8:30am - stop off at “American embassy” for egg mcmuffin

9am-12pm – count gold coins in vault with Adolf Eichmann, jr.

noon – more $%&#'ing cheese fondue

1pm – 3pm – attend modern art museums and loudly ask “What the fuck is that supposed to be?”

3:30pm – Go to Mariott and drag Rufus out of booth
(note: it's been 5 years, better bring a razor and change of clothes)

4pm – 6pm – drown children in racetrack pool at Alpa Mare

7pm – 10pm - get drunk and shoot off guns with Swiss Militia

10:52pm – call the Captain and ask what he's doing up at 4:52am

11:00pm – tip Roger Federer's cow

Day Four

8am – 30 minutes of nude yoga

8:45am – help Dr. Uhler put up satellite dish

9:30am – walk to Seilbahn Rigiblick

9:37am – take #10 tram to Bahnhofplatz

10:00am – take IC train to Bern Hauptbahnhof

11:30am – take S3 commuter train to Wankdorf

11:32am – arrive Wankdorf, realize Young Boys is just a football club and Wankdorf doesn't mean what I thought it did, leave country in disgust

1pm CST – arrive at O'Hare

1:15pm – tell customs “No I'm not a drug mule, that dark blob on my x-ray is just 10 kilos of cheese fondue”

1:45pm – tell cabbie to head for the nearest pharmacy

1:55pm – buy two boxes of exlax and try to get that cheese fondue moving

3pm – exercise American right to flush toilet in freedom

Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Super Tuesday, in brief

Now that it's over, pundits can start the complicated process of
pretending they know exactly what happened and why, but here at least
are some of the results.

On the Democratic side, the candidates split most of the contests, with
Barack Obama winning in Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut,
Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, North
Dakota and Utah, while Hillary Clinton won in Arizona, Arkansas,
California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, and
Tennessee. What's really important though are delegates, and Clinton
came out ahead, making up some ground and now holding 618 pledged
delegates to Obama's 614, in addition to her 193-106 lead in
superdelegates. The fallout of that is, the race is still very much
alive: Clinton failed to land the knock-out blow she was hoping for on
Super Tuesday, and while Obama didn't score a massive upset like beating
Hillary in California, the widespread belief has been that with momentum
on his side the longer the race goes on the more support will swing his way.

This weekend the Democrats have primaries in Louisiana and the Virgin
Islands, as well as caucuses in Maine, Nebraska, and Washington State,
and next Tuesday is a DC area set of primaries in Virginia, Maryland,
and the District itself, with the Hawaiian caucuses Wisconsin primary a
week later (then they leave us all alone for a bit while they go lick
their wounds and raise money).

On the Republican side, everybody won some primaries. Mike Huckabee won
a few southern states (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, and West
Virginia) while Romney won some contests (Alaska, Colorado,
Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, Utah, and Maine over
the weekend) and came in second in a couple big states like California
and Illinois. The problem for Romney is some of his wins didn't give
him much of an advantage, for instance his win in Massachusetts gave him
22 delegates to McCain's 17, while some of his second place finishes
were essentially worthless: while Obama's big win in Illinois picked
him up 62 delegates to Hillary's 31, McCain's win in Illinois (by a
smaller margin) got him 54 delegates to Romney's 2. McCain's wins in
Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, New
Jersey, New York, and Oklahoma (where the wind goes rushing down the
plain) proved devastating. What I can't figure out is after
Conservative Christians told us that Hurricane Katrina was a punishment
for wickedness, why it is every state that voted for Mike Huckabee was
struck with tornadoes? (Apparently he's not getting Jesus' vote after all.)

Here's how the Republicans stand, with 1,191 delegates needed for the
nomination:

John McCain 616
Mitt Romney 269
Mike Huckabee 170
Ron Paul 16

The Republicans have a similar schedule with a few differences. This
weekend they'll have caucuses in Kansas and Washington State as well as
the Louisiana Primary, and the same DC, Maryland, and Virginia primaries
next Tuesday, but since the Hawaii Republican Caucus was in January,
they'll have a White Trash Hawaii Caucus instead on the island of Guam
before the Washington State and Wisconsin Primaries. Actually they've
got a bunch of little island caucuses coming up soon in Guam, the Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, and American Samoa.

So anyways, this weekend is Louisiana, Washington State, and at least
one plains state for each side (Nebraska or Kansas), and the Democrats
will go to Maine. The Democratic race should continue to be interesting
in a close race where the underdog has momentum and money, and I would
have to think somebody's going to run out of money on the Republican
side soon if they don't get catch up a bit, but who knows.

Sunday, February 03, 2008

Cocktail Napkin for Super Tuesday

Just based on a map that went up on Meet the Press this morning and what
I could figure out about pledged delegates, I've been trying to figure
out what Super Tuesday is looking like. Barack and Hillary are each
leading in several states, but the states where Hillary is leading (AR,
CA, MA, NJ, NY, OK, TEN) have more delegates (943) than the states where
Barack is leading (AB, AK, GA, ID, IL, KS, MN, ND, 440 delegates) but
most delegates are proportionally allocated, and the undecided states
(AZ, CO, CT, DE, MO, NM, UT) add another 305. It really helps my
cocktail napkin calculation to have New York and California going
Clinton's way, but if Hillary loses in California she could be finished.
Of course, Obama has momentum and splitting the primaries and getting
800 delegates would probably keep him alive long enough to win the
nomination.

On the Republican side, because Mike Huckabee's plucky third place takes
a lot of votes away from Mitt Romney (don't ask me why) and according to
polling, this lets McCain beat him a lot of winner take all states.
Romney's strength is in states that have proportional allocation of
delegates, so it's quite possible that the Republicans will have a
nominee... in February. Can't we at least wait for the Ides of March or
something?

In any case polls are getting ridiculously inaccurate with response
rates around 20%, so who knows what's going to happen, but this should
be fun. I've never been to a caucus before, and two days before Super
Tuesday, I still haven't decided which party's caucus to go to, so I've
left it in the hands of fate: if the weather's bad, I'm going to the
Democratic Caucus because it's being held next door, and if the sun is
shining, I'll walk the mile to the Republican Caucus over on Nicollet
Island.

Saturday, February 02, 2008

Four Forgettable Films

Sunshine
Saw IV
National Treasure: Book of Secrets
Halloween

All four of these movies were more or less forgettable, but the only disappointment that came as a surprise was National Treasure, but that's because I seem to be one of the only smart people who enjoyed the first one. In the second installment, there's less bother about American history, which leaves much more room to show divorced couples fighting. For some reason this is very big right now, I think because so many celebrity break-ups have been part of the tabloid showcase in the past few years, and I can't go to the grocery store without seeing that Jennifer Aniston's family have made some new plea for Brad Pitt to come back home (allegedly). Parts of the movie are genuinely funny, but the charm of the original is completely gone. I'm sure the tie-in video game is great though, with all those scenes in the half-drowned city of gold.

Danny Boyle has made an entire career out of near misses, so if Sunshine disappointed it's my own fault for getting my hopes up. There are some interesting facets to Sunshine, including a really interesting performance from Chris Evans that had me stunned to find he was the same guy from that awful Fantastic Four movie. The problem in Sunshine is that the climax of the story passes so quickly and unobtrusively in the beginning of the movie that there's nothing left for the characters to do in the falling action but react, to the inevitable end. There's no jeopardy, since the outcome of the mission and the consequences for each character are completely obvious, and nothing to do but watch them all wait for the inevitable. There is an attempt at a vibrant plot twist with a crazed killer on the loose, but it's just pointless and comes out of nowhere far too late in the film to change the narrative. I think I was supposed to care about the characters, but only Evans showed enough depth amongst these one-faceted characters to make me feel anything for him. The end was supposed to be this big triumphant moment with sunshine and rock music, but the grim mood of the movie just drowned out all the attempts at spectacular visuals or any sense of hope, making it a tiresome plod, not an adventure. The really sad thing is how much the film lexicon of the magpie creators is on display, and makes it one of the few times I can say: just watch 2001 and Event Horizon while shining a bright light in your eyes, and you've pretty much got the whole movie.

In the case of Saw IV, I had a clear warning of how bad it was going to be: it was called Saw III. The latest film decided to dispense with the claustrophobia and engagement with particular characters of the first two films and just focus on strange ways to kill all the half-remembered characters from the first three movies. Seriously I had no idea who half the people were who end up playing a pivotal part in the denouement of this film, and I swear at least one of them was killed on-screen in the last movie. Oh, and the end of the last movie, when it sets up a sequel in which Saw's post-mortem death traps will haunt Angus MacFadyen as he tries to save his daughter, that was wrapped up in six seconds, but not until I had spent an hour and a half wondering what happened to his character. (This movie skips around in time a bit and doesn't always bother to inform the viewer, just to pull out a big ha-ha twist at the end with no dramatic investment, and consequently no real pay-off.) The entire film spends no time with its characters, instead choosing to give a long, uninventive backstory for Saw, which any intelligent viewer should be able to see coming when his pregnant wife is shown working with junkies at a free clinic. Mainly it's just frantic and pointless.

When I heard Rob Zombie wanted to do a remake of Halloween, only go deeper into the backstory of Michael Meyers, I kind of should have seen this coming. There are a host of movies from the 70s that lose something in translation, because the people who remake the movies always take out all the mystery. The shark in Jaws and Michael Meyers are my favorite examples of something ordinary that behaves in an extraordinary way, tapping into a larger fear of the supernatural without going so far as to step into fantasy. Since the 80s, every horror movie has abandoned this and unraveled in one of two ways, either as something banal and gory, or exploding into the ridiculous and losing all sense of the macabre. The original has a kid who's scared of the bogeyman for a reason, and this silent killer moving in this unnatural way on some inner murderous timetable hints at something otherworldly that has come out of a dark corner into the banal world of this baby-sitting teenager. Rob Zombie decided to take all that away by trying to explain how Meyers got to be this way, showing the abuse and early experimentation with killing animals and the withdrawal from the world behind a mask, and while creepy it forms a very weak bridge to the rest of the story, when Meyers must be unnatural and inhuman. Apparently there's a reason it's all compressed in Carpenter's original, leaving it a mystery that Dr. Loomis is only able to explain by referring to the mythical: Meyers is either obsessed with druid legends, or he actually stepped straight out of one. So anyways, the remake starts out interesting but because we know him too well, Meyers gets a little ordinary when he becomes a big guy chasing around cheerleaders with a knife.