Group A - Poland, Portugal, Serbia, Finland
Belgium has been eliminated, but four teams are still alive in Group A. With two games left to play, the Poles and Portuguese are leading the group by a win or better, with the Serbs and Finns trying to get back in. The Portuguese and Poles can clinch with any stumble by the Finns and Serbs, or by winning next week, so they're almost certainly likely to wrap things up.
Group B - France, Scotland, and Italy
The Ukraine's loss to Scotland put them out of it, and the Scots' loss to Georgia (go Bulldogs) has tightened things up for the remaining three contenders. Italy has a game in hand and will almost certainly win against the Faroe Islands, so they're in control of the group and it really comes down to two games: Ukraine v France, and Scotland v Italy. First comes the Scotland-Italy game, in which the winner gets to the finals and the loser can be eliminated by France if they get at least a draw against the Ukraine. In this situation a draw favors Italy, and an Italian win puts them in with France. The French are also in with a win or a draw, but France is on the road and the Ukrainians have been making France their bitches for a long time.
Group C - Greece, Norway, and Turkey
The Greeks are already in after their win in Istanbul , and with two games left to play the Norwegians have a two point lead on the Turks. The next big game is Norway vs Turkey, and unless the Turks win, Norway is in and they're out. Assuming Norway can handle Malta, the Turks really need to win in Norway and at home against Bosnia to upset the Norwegians.
Group D - Germany, Czech Republic
Due to a really poor showing by the Republic of Ireland, the Germans and Czechs are already in, which is good what with the tournament being in their back yard. Amusingly the Germans just got spanked by the Czechs, and given the weakness of the top seeds (Austria, Switzerland, Greece) the Germans have been accused of throwing the match to try and get a lower seed in the tournament, since the 4th top seed will almost certainly have the toughest draw.
Group E - Croatia, Russia, Ingerland
England really put themselves in a tough spot losing to Russia in Moscow this week, so all the Croats need to lock up a spot is a draw in either Macedonia or London, and the Russians can virtually eliminate England with a win in Israel (trickier than it used to be). An Israeli win would put England (and Croatia) through with a draw, while a draw would mean England probably needs an outright win over Croatia. Should Russia win, they're in, and England would need Croatia to lose in Macedonia and to lose by at least two in London. Bottom line: the Croats need any result, the English need basically a win and a draw by themselves or the Israelis v the Russians, while the Russians can practically lock it up by winning in Israel.
Group F - Sweden, Spain, Denmark, Northern Ireland
The next matchday is the showdown: the leaders Spain v second place Sweden, and the two hangers-on meet when Denmark plays Northern Ireland. Only the winner of the DEN v NI game will still be alive, and really they need to hope one of the two leaders implodes. Basically Sweden and Spain are well on their way to the Alps next summer.
Group G - Romania, Netherlands, Bulgaria
The Romanians are in, and the Dutch can finish it with a win at home against Luxembourg. Should they fail to do so, the Bulgarians can overtake them with a couple of wins and a near-complete implosion by the Dutch. So I wouldn't plan on that happening.
For anyone looking to buy tickets next summer, here's who you're likely to see:
Qualified (5 spots):
Austria (hosts)
Switzerland (hosts)
Greece
Germany
Czech Republic
Almost certain (8 spots):
Poland
Portugal
Norway
Croatia
Sweden
Spain
Romania
Netherlands
Undecided (3 spots):
Any two of Italy, France, Scotland
Either England or Russia (that's the USSR to you, Fred Thompson)
Long shots:
Finland
Serbia
Turkey
Denmark
Northern Ireland
Bulgaria
Not attending but sorely missed:
Belgium
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