Saturday, July 15, 2006

Italian Referee Scandal Fallout

For anybody not following this story, what was long suspected in Italian football, that some top clubs (Juventus in particular) got favorable refereeing, was finally proved. Juventus had a scheme for seeing that friendly referees were assigned to their games, and supposedly to counteract this Milan had a scheme to skew the assignment of linesmen. Franco Zefirelli was once sued for libel after making a film trying to highlight all the questionable calls that go Juve's way, but now he's been vindicated. Milan, Lazio, and Fiorentina were all caught in this scandal when it broke, and all have been punished. There was little evidence that Milan was directly interfering, and the top management weren't be directly implicated, so they really aren't coming out of this too badly. Here are the penalties:

Lazio was relegated to Serie B, and will start the season with a 7 point penalty. They could be back in Serie A the next year, depending on whether their players stick around. Lazio may have a giant fire sale and take a little longer to recover, given the drop in income.

Fiorentina was also relegated to Serie B with a 12 point penalty, so they'll have a rougher time climbing back up even with players sticking around. Following a good World Cup, Luca Toni should bring in a lot of money if they sell him now.

Juventus got hit the hardest, relegated to Serie B with a 30 point penalty. Especially not knowing who'll stick around for next year, the penalty will mean next season they'll be playing to avoid relegation to Serie C for the 2007. The prosecutor's recommendation was relegation to Serie C with a 6 point penalty, which would have meant they'd be in Serie B in 2007 for sure, this way they'll have to fight to even be sure of that.

Milan had 44 points deducted from this season, meaning they went from 2nd to 7th, and a 15 point penalty next year. The crazy thing is theoretically Milan should have missed out on European competition because of that deduction, but Empoli, for what reason I don't know, doesn't have a license to play in European competition, so Milan will possibly play in the UEFA Cup. A 15 point deduction means Milan also has a shot at playing in the Champions league in 2007, or at least the UEFA Cup. This is pretty significant, if they do well in Europe they won't take a big hit to their income and can keep a strong squad together, while their biggest rival will be rebuilding for years.

It's not clear yet how the loss of top players and the income to retain and replace them will affect these clubs. Going into next year, a largely unchallenged and stocked with talent Inter Milan will find a way to choke the title away, leaving it wide open. Francesco Totti's decision to stay his entire career at Roma has been criticized in the past, since he could have been a bigger star at a bigger club, but now that decision has to be looking pretty good to him, with only choke-happy Inter between him and another scudetto. It should be an interesting season in Serie A and Serie B, for sure.

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