Sunday, April 11, 2010

Timberwolves 108-99 Kings, or how I learned to love Darko

(Forgot to actually post this two weeks ago, whoops. Fortunately nobody will read it anyways, so no harm done.) When I saw the Wolves beat the Kings, had certainly been a while since I saw them fail to execute a fourth quarter meltdown. I have to admit, I was a bit surprised. With a handful of games left in the season the Wolves have locked up the second biggest batch of ping-pong balls in the lottery. The Nyets won the head-to-head and clinch the worst overall record by virtue of having blown 20+ point leads in both games against the Wolves... basically the worst tank job I've ever seen outside of pro wrestling. I have two concerns over the eventual flop of the ping-pong balls: whatever kind of talent the Wolves might be able to add next year, and a rather low stakes gamble I made on a season ticket.

Sadly in a 2-player draft it's hard to imagine the league allowing the Timberwolves a crack at one of the top two players (there's a reason they hold the draft behind closed doors). They can't make it too obvious they're getting screwed, so I'd guess they're looking at the #3 overall pick which means my crappy "Pay the Pick" season ticket will cost $3 a game and I can only hope the Wolves do their homework and use a top 5 pick to find a player that has some impact. With six draft picks and 3-6 spots opening up on the roster next year, somebody's got to change up the dynamic of this team so by mid-December I'm not already thinking about rebuilding for next season.


Trying to make sense of what they put on the floor now I took a look at the +/- for this game. If you don't know, that's the total shift in the scoreline during all the time a particular player was on the floor... a stat with a lot of biases, but still interesting. In this game the Wolves won by 9, and the guys who split time at point guard combined for a +/- of 9, which is kind of mathematically necessary. The other positions are a bit muddier, but most everybody else was about +8 or +9. The exceptions are interesting... Wayne Ellington was at -9, meaning the game went horribly against the team while he was in, and Corey Brewer who seemed to be having a good night was +11. The big men (Milicic, Jefferson, and Love) combined for +18 (which is about right for guys who got most of the minutes at 2 positions) but almost all of that was Milicic and Love.

This is one of the confusing things about the Timberwolves: much as I love Jefferson who quietly builds a 20 point, 12 rebound game every night, Love looks like our best player but nibbles for minutes of the bench. They've got to find a way to play those guys together or make a change. Our starting point guard isn't much better than his back-up, but to be fair he's a rookie and I'd like to see his sophomore year. Nobody really stands out at shooting guard or small forward, just a couple good but not great squad players in Gomes and Brewer. And the weird thing is after three different centers didn't really work out, somebody's gotten Darko's motor running for the first time in years and he's putting up double-doubles and blocking shots, making him the first Wolves center in years to do anything but stand around and look sleepy.

It's just sad that three years after freeing KG and blowing up the team, they still have no identity and are contending for worst in the league (in any other year they'd have gotten it). If they don't do something this off-season with a top 5 pick, cap space, six overall draft picks, and the inside track on Darko, Ricky Rubio, and Pekovic, I have to wonder what's the point?

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