Euro2008: Netherlands vs Russia

Sometimes a picture really is worth a thousand words, so here's a brief pictorial tribute to Holland crashing out of the last two major international tournaments in their first elimination game:

Annoying Euro2008 Update: The Draw

The draw for the Euro'08 Finals in Switzerland and Austria is complete, and wow, does Europe ever need to do some research on the concept of seeding. Group C was always going to be a beast because of the top seeds that had to go to weak hosts Switzerland and Austria and defending champions Greece, so the was guaranteed to have two of the top five teams in Europe in it, but UEFA went a little overboard, putting the finalists of the last World Cup (France and Italy) together again, and Holland as a third seed. Clasping their heads in their hands and looking skyward to ask "What have we done to deserve this fate?" are Romania, who will find qualifying out of that group more difficult than dubbing Nicholas Cage into Cantonese.

This conveniently groups the headquarters of three of the five Romance languages together so all the hooligans will understand each other. Presumably since they couldn't squeeze in one of the Iberian teams they threw in the Dutch who speak five languages and smoke marijuana, and have a hooligan army ready to spring out of a windmill at a moment's notice. Sales of French-Dutch pocket dictionaries in Den Haag have gone through the roof... everything through practice!

Germany gets the easiest group in my opinion, although they do get their old friensd the Poles in a neutral field rematch. The Germans decided previously decided to schedule their Germany'06 match as far west from Poland as possible... like Pennsylvania. Rounding out that group are Austria and Croatia.

Switzerland has a couple decent opponents in Portugal and the Czech Republic, and any of those three could advance. I wouldn't disregard the Turks either, so the Swiss could be back to stacking gold bars and snorting blow off Martina Hingis in the first week.

Greece have the advantage of the "No Home Field Advantage" group drawn from the farthest corners of Europe: Greece in the south, Russia in the east, Spain in the west, and Sweden in the north. Spain is pretty good in the early rounds before crumpling against their first competent opponent (and occasionally squeezing past a minnow like Ireland on PK's) but the Swedes have a few tricks like the ninja skills of Zlatan Ibrahimovic, the Russians are still looking to make a mark on the international scene in the post-Evil Empire era, and the counter-attacking Greeks are always ready to roll out a trojan and fuck somebody.

And if you really want to know more about Euro'08 or qualification, I still say Peter Godfrey's site is the best for results: http://www.eofl.co.uk/eu2008

Euro2008 qualifiers - all over but the crying

First off, sell your Kirsch and Goldschlager futures, because England will not be going to Switzerland next summer after losing 3-2 to Croatia in London today, while Russia as expected won in Andorra to knock England out of the tournament. (Early whining has the New York Giants to blame for tearing up the field in their game against the Dolphins at Wembley.) Pretty much everybody else came through as expected: the Turks came through with a win against Bosnia to knock out Norway, the Poles obliged the Portuguese by knocking out Serbia, and the Swedes are in over Northern Ireland. I was also watching with interest the battle between Germany and Holland to avoid being a top seed, and despite a 2-1 loss in Minsk, the Dutch are still a top seed. So here they are grouped by seeding, your Euro2008 finalists:

Austria (hosts)
Switzerland (hosts)
Greece (holders)
Netherlands

Sweden
Italy
Croatia
Czech Republic

Spain
Portugal
Germany
Romania

France (???)
Russia
Turkey
Poland

The top 16 in Europe are good enough that seeding isn't all that important, since all groups should be tough anyways, but this is the most lopsided I've seen. France in the bottom tier and Austria as a #1 seed, this could lead to an absolutely epic Netherlands, Italy, Germany, France group. And of course, the three European teams I was pulling for, the Belgians, Irish, and Norwegians, all failed to qualify for a second tournament in a row. At least the French will be there for style, and the Dutch to once again choke on their mayonnaise coated fries.

Correction regarding Netherlands

As somebody pointed out, my math skills are apparently lacking, and Holland and Romania are already qualified for next year's Euro (and Bulgaria is out). Here's one more wrinkle: Holland and Germany are in a fight to see who gets a top seed, which is not something you want. As it stands, the Dutch will join Austria, Switzerland, and Greece in the pool of top seeds, which is not a good thing... it's much better to be in the second tier and avoid the Italians and a couple other much tougher teams than Greece and Austria. At this point the French and the Spaniards, two of Europe's top teams, are looking like #4 seeds, proving once again that seven centuries of post-Renaissance European cultural and intellectual development wasn't enough to teach these people how to run a proper seeding system for a football tournament.

So if the Dutch have a suspiciously bad loss to Belarus tomorrow, they're likely to get a #2 seed and coal in their shoes come Sint Niklaas Day. How likely is this? Well let's just say coal futures are up $40 on the CME, which is like 2,50 in euros.

Euro2008 Qualifiers, last call

For anybody keeping track, I thought perhaps I should follow up my report on the various Euro2008 bubble teams, given a couple surprising results.

First the less shocking results:  the Poles beat Belgium to lock up a spot in the finals, and this has me quite annoyed, because even though the Rode Duivels were long since eliminated, I'd like to see them at least finish strong and do what Belgium does best:  annoy the crap out of everyone.  The Portuguese beat Armenia as expected, but due to a snowed out Serbia-Kazakhstan game and a Finnish win over Azerbaijan, the Portuguese still need to pull out some kind of result against Finland on Saturday to clinch a spot in the finals.  (A detail I screwed up in my last report, thankfully nobody caught it... I wonder if that has anything to do with nobody reading it in the first place.)  Spain jumped up and down on Sweden yesterday, while the Danes lost in Belfast, which put Spain in the finals, eliminates Denmark, and gives Northern Ireland a very long shot at upsetting Sweden for a spot in the finals, needing a win in Spain and a Latvian win in Solna (which is just outside Stockholm and home to AIK, for you Swedish football afficionados).  Holland was able to squeak out a win over Luxembourg, which is really rather sad since they should be able to pop over before lunch and win that one with sandwiches in their hands, and I mean really good sandwiches with fresh ham and kaas.  The Romanians were less obliging, and lost to the Bulgarians to keep Holland on the bubble, needing a win in Minsk this Wednesday to be sure of making the finals, while the Romanians get the Albanians at home and Bulgaria travels to Slovenia with a shot at bouncing either the Romanians or Dutch.

In the big games I had an eye on, much to my annoyance I discovered the Turks beat Norway in Oslo to take a lead for the last spot in Group C, meaning Norway needs Bosnia to win in Istanbul this Wednesday... as I said, with the proud Viking blood that flows through my veins, I find this quite annoying.  The big showdown between the Scots and Italians also didn't go my way as the Italians won 2-1 in Glasgow, the upside being the French and Italians are in the Euro and the Ukraine-France game I was dreading is no longer significant.  In the big two "Will the red and white horde descend on central Europe?" match-ups, the Russians made no headway in Tel Aviv, while to my surprise the Croatians got soundly beaten in Macedonia, leaving a wide-open door into the Euro for England, who control their destiny in their final game against Croatia at Wembley.  Croatia are already qualified, and England only needs a draw to qualify, but as Fred Thompson will surely tell you England will get precious little help from the USSR, who are sure to win against Andorra.

Also of interest, Germany beat Cyprus 4-0, which ordinarily would not be all that surprising, but the Germans were highly expected to throw the game.  As it stands, the Germans will be a top seed for Euro2008, which is not something they're too excited about, since the other top seeds are Greece, Switzerland, and Austria.  Anybody in the next four seeds avoids three of their toughest opponents (really the top five in Europe minus themselves), and has a 75% chance of avoiding all four if they avoid the Germans in the draw.  The Germans on the other hand are guaranteed to face one of Italy, Holland, France, or Spain, so there's been rampant speculation that Germany would throw all their games until the draw to stay out of the top seeds and stick the Italians with that honor.  Obviously karma would demand that they then draw Italy, the Czechs, and the Poles for the ultimate seeding nightmare... Austria-Switzerland is like a home tournament for Germany, so if they drew the Italians who are world champions and neighbors on the other side, the Czechs who are right next door, and the Poles who are the world champions of hating Germany, I'd be laughing uncontrollably for a week.

So here are the Big Meaningful Games this Wednesday:

Portugal v Finland
Serbia v Poland
(pretty much any break for the Portuguese puts them in over Serbia)

Spain v Northern Ireland
Sweden v Latvia
(any break for the Swedes puts them in ahead of N.I.)

Turkey v Bosnia
Norway v Malta
(The Turks either win or stay home next summer, the Norwegians either win or can never go home again)

England v Croatia
Russia v Andorra
(Andorra's no kingmaker, so if England gets a draw or better, they send Russia home)

Romania v Albania
Belarus v Netherlands
Slovenia v Bulgaria
The Dutch and Romanians control their own destiny, but any stumble allows the Bulgarians to claim a scalp.  For all you Dutchies here's what you have to look forward to besides coal in your shoes on St. Nicholas Day:
    Dutch win:  Euro2008, baby
    Dutch draw:  Romania must lose, or Bulgarians must lose or draw
    Dutch loss:  Bulgaria must lose or draw for Dutch to advance

Germany v Wales
(Germany is already qualified, but a bad loss to Wales might get them out of them out of the top four seeds.)

And here's what the tournament looks like so far:

Qualified (10 spots):
Austria (hosts)
Switzerland (hosts)
Greece (holders)
Germany
Czech Republic
Poland
Spain
Croatia
Italy
France

Likely (2 spots):
Portugal  (but maybe Serbia)
Sweden  (but maybe Northern Ireland)

Undecided (4 spots):
England or Russia (England)
Any two of Romania, Netherlands, Bulgaria (Romania, Netherlands)
Turkey or Norway (Turkey)

Not attending but sorely missed:
Belgium

Euro'08 qualifiers winding down

Group A - Poland, Portugal, Serbia, Finland

Belgium has been eliminated, but four teams are still alive in Group A. With two games left to play, the Poles and Portuguese are leading the group by a win or better, with the Serbs and Finns trying to get back in. The Portuguese and Poles can clinch with any stumble by the Finns and Serbs, or by winning next week, so they're almost certainly likely to wrap things up.

Group B - France, Scotland, and Italy

The Ukraine's loss to Scotland put them out of it, and the Scots' loss to Georgia (go Bulldogs) has tightened things up for the remaining three contenders. Italy has a game in hand and will almost certainly win against the Faroe Islands, so they're in control of the group and it really comes down to two games: Ukraine v France, and Scotland v Italy. First comes the Scotland-Italy game, in which the winner gets to the finals and the loser can be eliminated by France if they get at least a draw against the Ukraine. In this situation a draw favors Italy, and an Italian win puts them in with France. The French are also in with a win or a draw, but France is on the road and the Ukrainians have been making France their bitches for a long time.

Group C - Greece, Norway, and Turkey

The Greeks are already in after their win in Istanbul , and with two games left to play the Norwegians have a two point lead on the Turks. The next big game is Norway vs Turkey, and unless the Turks win, Norway is in and they're out. Assuming Norway can handle Malta, the Turks really need to win in Norway and at home against Bosnia to upset the Norwegians.

Group D - Germany, Czech Republic

Due to a really poor showing by the Republic of Ireland, the Germans and Czechs are already in, which is good what with the tournament being in their back yard. Amusingly the Germans just got spanked by the Czechs, and given the weakness of the top seeds (Austria, Switzerland, Greece) the Germans have been accused of throwing the match to try and get a lower seed in the tournament, since the 4th top seed will almost certainly have the toughest draw.

Group E - Croatia, Russia, Ingerland

England really put themselves in a tough spot losing to Russia in Moscow this week, so all the Croats need to lock up a spot is a draw in either Macedonia or London, and the Russians can virtually eliminate England with a win in Israel (trickier than it used to be). An Israeli win would put England (and Croatia) through with a draw, while a draw would mean England probably needs an outright win over Croatia. Should Russia win, they're in, and England would need Croatia to lose in Macedonia and to lose by at least two in London. Bottom line: the Croats need any result, the English need basically a win and a draw by themselves or the Israelis v the Russians, while the Russians can practically lock it up by winning in Israel.

Group F - Sweden, Spain, Denmark, Northern Ireland

The next matchday is the showdown: the leaders Spain v second place Sweden, and the two hangers-on meet when Denmark plays Northern Ireland. Only the winner of the DEN v NI game will still be alive, and really they need to hope one of the two leaders implodes. Basically Sweden and Spain are well on their way to the Alps next summer.

Group G - Romania, Netherlands, Bulgaria

The Romanians are in, and the Dutch can finish it with a win at home against Luxembourg. Should they fail to do so, the Bulgarians can overtake them with a couple of wins and a near-complete implosion by the Dutch. So I wouldn't plan on that happening.

For anyone looking to buy tickets next summer, here's who you're likely to see:

Qualified (5 spots):
Austria (hosts)
Switzerland (hosts)
Greece
Germany
Czech Republic

Almost certain (8 spots):
Poland
Portugal
Norway
Croatia
Sweden
Spain
Romania
Netherlands

Undecided (3 spots):
Any two of Italy, France, Scotland
Either England or Russia (that's the USSR to you, Fred Thompson)

Long shots:

Finland
Serbia
Turkey
Denmark
Northern Ireland
Bulgaria

Not attending but sorely missed:

Belgium