The Clinton firewall strategy worked, sort of. Senator Clinton won the Ohio Primary by a signficant margin which is actually a big deal given the importance of Ohio as a swing state, and the Rhode Island Primary, while Obama won in Vermont. In Texas, it's a bit less clear. Clinton won the primary that assigned two thirds of all delegates while Obama has a lead in the caucuses that started after the primaries, however the precinct caucuses in Texas were such a mess that many didn't get started until 11pm, and only 40% have even bothered to call in and tell anyone the results. Technically the results aren't official until the end of the month when Texas has its senate district conventions, but unofficial results were suppposed to be called in to the state party... I don't know if these people don't have email or if they're still waiting for the weekly train that delivers the mail to west Texas.
Here's the bottom line: Hillary Clinton didn't deliver a crushing blow in Ohio, and she barely won the Texas primary and lost the caucus, which means she won't pick up that many delegates or cut into Barack Obama's lead. At this point, she would have to win every remaining contest 70-30 to finish with more pledged delegates than Senator Obama, and that isn't going to happen, Democrats are too evenly divided to all break for her. Even if she can't win the remaining primaries, here's a reminder of all the ways she has to get more delegates and effectively steal the nomination, plus one new one:
1. Florida and Michigan
Being the only candidate on the ballot helps, and getting the delegates restored could swing things her way. This cuts both ways: if they have caucuses to assign those delegates, she's screwed because the only people passionate enough to wait around and sign in at a caucus support Obama in overwhelming numbers.
2. John Edwards' pledged delegates
Promising to make Edwards Attorney General or VP and getting his 26 delegates might actually help a lot in this race.
3. Steal caucus delegates
Senator Clinton, if you're reading this and you make me Secretary of Transportation, I might switch my vote at the district caucus, you never know.
4. Superdelegates
This is tough because the Superdelegates have started swinging to Obama and might do so in greater numbers now to hasten his victory and unify the party against McCain. Also see #5:
5. Republican voters
With McCain certain to win the Republican nomination, Republicans have started crossing over in states with open primaries to vote for Senator Clinton because she's the best way to motivate the Republican base to turn out and vote for McCain, and her opportunism, flip-flopping, and ethical issues make her easier an easier opponent to poke holes in. This helped her win the Texas Primary, but it may also drive superdelegates away from her who don't want Republicans picking the party nominee.
Because Obama is finding the task of winning a big state and finishing off Clinton to be harder than dubbing Nicholas Cage into Cantonese, the Republicans are starting their campaign early while Democrats are dragging each other down in an increasingly negative campaign that sadly seems to undermine what many people liked about Obama in the first place. Up next are small events in Wyoming and Mississippi, but the big deal is the April 22 primary in Pennsylvania: a big win there could make somebody president.
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