Euro2008 Qualifiers, last call

For anybody keeping track, I thought perhaps I should follow up my report on the various Euro2008 bubble teams, given a couple surprising results.

First the less shocking results:  the Poles beat Belgium to lock up a spot in the finals, and this has me quite annoyed, because even though the Rode Duivels were long since eliminated, I'd like to see them at least finish strong and do what Belgium does best:  annoy the crap out of everyone.  The Portuguese beat Armenia as expected, but due to a snowed out Serbia-Kazakhstan game and a Finnish win over Azerbaijan, the Portuguese still need to pull out some kind of result against Finland on Saturday to clinch a spot in the finals.  (A detail I screwed up in my last report, thankfully nobody caught it... I wonder if that has anything to do with nobody reading it in the first place.)  Spain jumped up and down on Sweden yesterday, while the Danes lost in Belfast, which put Spain in the finals, eliminates Denmark, and gives Northern Ireland a very long shot at upsetting Sweden for a spot in the finals, needing a win in Spain and a Latvian win in Solna (which is just outside Stockholm and home to AIK, for you Swedish football afficionados).  Holland was able to squeak out a win over Luxembourg, which is really rather sad since they should be able to pop over before lunch and win that one with sandwiches in their hands, and I mean really good sandwiches with fresh ham and kaas.  The Romanians were less obliging, and lost to the Bulgarians to keep Holland on the bubble, needing a win in Minsk this Wednesday to be sure of making the finals, while the Romanians get the Albanians at home and Bulgaria travels to Slovenia with a shot at bouncing either the Romanians or Dutch.

In the big games I had an eye on, much to my annoyance I discovered the Turks beat Norway in Oslo to take a lead for the last spot in Group C, meaning Norway needs Bosnia to win in Istanbul this Wednesday... as I said, with the proud Viking blood that flows through my veins, I find this quite annoying.  The big showdown between the Scots and Italians also didn't go my way as the Italians won 2-1 in Glasgow, the upside being the French and Italians are in the Euro and the Ukraine-France game I was dreading is no longer significant.  In the big two "Will the red and white horde descend on central Europe?" match-ups, the Russians made no headway in Tel Aviv, while to my surprise the Croatians got soundly beaten in Macedonia, leaving a wide-open door into the Euro for England, who control their destiny in their final game against Croatia at Wembley.  Croatia are already qualified, and England only needs a draw to qualify, but as Fred Thompson will surely tell you England will get precious little help from the USSR, who are sure to win against Andorra.

Also of interest, Germany beat Cyprus 4-0, which ordinarily would not be all that surprising, but the Germans were highly expected to throw the game.  As it stands, the Germans will be a top seed for Euro2008, which is not something they're too excited about, since the other top seeds are Greece, Switzerland, and Austria.  Anybody in the next four seeds avoids three of their toughest opponents (really the top five in Europe minus themselves), and has a 75% chance of avoiding all four if they avoid the Germans in the draw.  The Germans on the other hand are guaranteed to face one of Italy, Holland, France, or Spain, so there's been rampant speculation that Germany would throw all their games until the draw to stay out of the top seeds and stick the Italians with that honor.  Obviously karma would demand that they then draw Italy, the Czechs, and the Poles for the ultimate seeding nightmare... Austria-Switzerland is like a home tournament for Germany, so if they drew the Italians who are world champions and neighbors on the other side, the Czechs who are right next door, and the Poles who are the world champions of hating Germany, I'd be laughing uncontrollably for a week.

So here are the Big Meaningful Games this Wednesday:

Portugal v Finland
Serbia v Poland
(pretty much any break for the Portuguese puts them in over Serbia)

Spain v Northern Ireland
Sweden v Latvia
(any break for the Swedes puts them in ahead of N.I.)

Turkey v Bosnia
Norway v Malta
(The Turks either win or stay home next summer, the Norwegians either win or can never go home again)

England v Croatia
Russia v Andorra
(Andorra's no kingmaker, so if England gets a draw or better, they send Russia home)

Romania v Albania
Belarus v Netherlands
Slovenia v Bulgaria
The Dutch and Romanians control their own destiny, but any stumble allows the Bulgarians to claim a scalp.  For all you Dutchies here's what you have to look forward to besides coal in your shoes on St. Nicholas Day:
    Dutch win:  Euro2008, baby
    Dutch draw:  Romania must lose, or Bulgarians must lose or draw
    Dutch loss:  Bulgaria must lose or draw for Dutch to advance

Germany v Wales
(Germany is already qualified, but a bad loss to Wales might get them out of them out of the top four seeds.)

And here's what the tournament looks like so far:

Qualified (10 spots):
Austria (hosts)
Switzerland (hosts)
Greece (holders)
Germany
Czech Republic
Poland
Spain
Croatia
Italy
France

Likely (2 spots):
Portugal  (but maybe Serbia)
Sweden  (but maybe Northern Ireland)

Undecided (4 spots):
England or Russia (England)
Any two of Romania, Netherlands, Bulgaria (Romania, Netherlands)
Turkey or Norway (Turkey)

Not attending but sorely missed:
Belgium